The list of May 2024 elections will feature the ongoing phases of the Indian general election, as well as what could be South Africa’s closest post-apartheid poll.
India Election (Ongoing)
India’s 2024 elections are the largest democratic exercise in history. Due to the sheer scope of the election, it is broken down into seven phases, in which different regions vote at different times. The first several phases of the vote took place in April, four more will occur this month, and the final phase will be held in June. Results of the election will be announced on June 4. About 970 million Indians are registered to vote, according to the Associated Press.
While this is a busy month in Indian electoral politics, we only have opinion polling to tell us how the voting is going. The National Democratic Alliance, led by the Bharatiya Janata Party of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, is believed to be ahead as it seeks a third-consecutive majority government.
South Africa Election (May 29)
Unlike India, we will know the full results of South Africa’s poll this month. On the 29th, South Africans will vote for its government for the next five years. If opinion polling is to be believed, this could be the first time in the post-apartheid era that the African National Congress does not win a parliamentary majority.
Since the days of Nelson Mandela and his 1994 landslide victory, the ANC has dominated South African politics. However, 30 years later, the ANC has fractured and the party’s leader, President Cyril Ramaphosa, has seen his personal popularity suffer. The vast majority of recent opinion polling has the ANC under 50 percent of the vote, which under the nation’s proportional representation system would result in a hung parliament. Further complicating matters for the current government is that several opposition parties signed a pact of cooperation to shore up their numbers, called the Multi-Party Charter.
The African National Congress has potential coalition partners of its own, so they remain in fair position, but the prospect of the first non-landslide election in South Africa since universal suffrage is an interesting one.
Other Notable May 2024 Elections
British local elections, May 2. One of the most key May elections will not be a general election, but local. In a precursor to the forthcoming British general election, England and Wales will head to the polls to vote for their local councils and other offices of note. London is among the cities that will elect a mayor. Blackpool South, a parliamentary constituency, will also vote in a by-election. Some had theorized that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak would call the general election to run concurrently with the local elections, but that time has long passed.
Expectations are that the Westminster-governing Conservatives will be routed in both the local elections and the Blackpool South by-election. Any other result would bear close watching.
Lithuania presidential election, May 12. Gitanas Nausėda is running for a second term as president of Lithuania. Should Nausėda or any candidate fail to receive an absolute majority of the votes on the 12th, a runoff will be held on the 26th. The incumbent is considered the favorite, though polling suggests a second round may still be necessary.
Dominican Republic general election, May 19. President Luis Abinader is running for a second four-year term, having been elected at the height of Covid in July 2020. Both houses of the Dominican Congress are also up for election. Like in Lithuania, a top-two runoff would be held if no presidential candidate receives an absolute majority, however there are polling indications that Abinader is on track for a first-ballot victory.
California-20 special election, May 21. The seat of former House speaker Kevin McCarthy comes up for voting in late May. He resigned following his ouster as speaker in 2023. The 20th District is carefully drawn around parts of the cities of Bakersfield and Fresno, giving it a heavy Republican lean. The GOP has in effect already won the seat, as both candidates to escape the top-two primary in both the special election and November general are Republicans. That is welcome news for the party, as their situation in the House has become desperate with dysfunction. Republicans hold just 217 seats against 213 Democrats, with five vacancies and a handful of outspoken members holding the balance of power.
