On 2 May, voters in England and Wales will vote in the 2024 UK Local Elections. On the same date, the Westminster-leading Conservatives face yet another by-election test in Blackpool South.
2024 UK Local Elections
London and Other Mayoral Elections
Sadiq Khan, Labour’s mayor of London since 2016, is standing for a third term. He was re-elected in 2021 with a primary vote (1st round) of 40 percent, but a second-round vote of 55 percent.
In 2024, London’s mayoral election will use a first-past-the-post (FPTP) ballot for the first time since the mayoralty was decided at the polls. The Elections Act of 2022 did away with the local alternative voting system (called the supplementary vote) previously used in London and certain other places, meaning whereas Londoners could in the past have a primary vote and a ranked second choice, that is no longer the case. The final result could, and likely will, be decided by a plurality vote in a four-way race.
Khan’s main opposition in London is Susan Hall, running for the Conservatives. Hall is a London Assembly member who is campaigning on the issues of crime, taxes, and rolling back the expansion of ULEZ, the Ultra-Low Emissions Zone, London’s vehicle anti-emissions scheme. The Liberal Democrats (Rob Blackie) and Greens (Zoë Garbett) are also standing in this election, though neither party is considered a serious contender this time, particularly without the supplementary vote.
The Assembly in which Hall sits will also see its seats up for grabs in this election; Labour is the largest party but does not hold a majority of the 26 seats.
London will not have the only mayor’s race in Britain. Manchester, Liverpool, and the West Midlands are among the municipalities voting this time. The West Midlands election is considered a key race, as incumbent Conservative mayor Andy Street is locked in a tight contest with Labour’s Richard Parker. This authority includes Birmingham, Coventry, and Wolverhampton, among other locales. Street won by 9 percent last time, but opinion polling suggests he may only squeak out a victory, if he wins at all. Tees Valley will be another one to watch, as the Conservatives and their incumbent, Lord Houchen, are defending this authority in the North East. Houchen, who was granted a peerage in 2023, won in a landslide in 2021, though polling suggests this will be a much closer race.
Council Elections
A total of 2,636 council seats are up for grabs in the 2024 UK local elections in 107 councils. 45 of them are held by Labour, which is the single-most by any one party. 34 have no overall control, while the Conservatives hold 18 and the Lib Dems 10. Despite the council breakdown, at the last election, the Conservatives won 985 of these seats while Labour took 966. The Lib Dems were further behind on 410.
2024 Blackpool South By-Election
The Conservatives have another seat to defend in a by-election, Blackpool South. It became vacant when Scott Benton, formerly the Tory MP, was suspended by the House of Commons following an investigation and resigned rather than face a recall petition. He was elected in the 2019 Conservative wave which claimed numerous “red wall” seats in the north of England. Benton’s majority was 3,690 votes.
If other recent by-elections are any indication, this looks to be heading for a Labour win. Labour is racking up huge swings against the Conservatives across England, and their only two missteps so far have been in Uxbridge & South Ruislip and Rochdale. The former was a successful Tory campaign that was waged against ULEZ, and the latter saw Labour disendorse their candidate after anti-Israel comments came to light, allowing George Galloway to win for the Workers’ Party.
Looming Potential Fallout from 2024 UK Local Elections
A frequent caveat of the local elections is not to look too much into them. Indeed, local issues will be at stake, and there will be smaller parties participating here which would not in a Westminster election. However, there is something riding on this election for the Conservatives. For one thing, a poor result could directly impact both the timing of a general election as well as the leadership of Rishi Sunak. The prime minister has not quieted his doubters from within his own party benches, and none of that is made better by the fact that the Tories have badly trailed in national polls for almost the last two years. A bad 2024 local election could foment a coup within the Conservative Party, with the possibility of installing a new leader before the next election, which must be held by law sometime approximately within the next nine months.
The result also could cause the prime minister to call an election, which itself might come about from two different angles. In the case of a bad result, there is a chance he may drop the writ to avoid said Tory intraparty coup, if such a thing is real, or otherwise cling to power. If it’s better than expected, that may make the Conservatives feel like it is now-or-never to save their government.
In 2021, the last time many of these offices were up for election, the Boris Johnson-led Tory government had the wind at its backs, thanks to its handling of Covid, and in particular, the rollout of the vaccine. All of that political capital is gone and then some. This should be a far, far different election night than three years ago. Some Tories are said to be well aware of what is looming, and believe that losses well into the hundreds of councilors is inevitable.
