While we do not know how the next British election will play out specifically, in a manner of speaking, we do.
Britain will likely vote in 2024, though by law, the election may also occur in January 2025. Putting aside all the usual caveats about never saying never, whenever it is, the next British election has spelled doom for the Tories for a while now. The United Kingdom is fast approaching a change election, and the governing Conservatives are about to find themselves in opposition. This should come as little surprise to those who follow British politics.
With the way the political momentum has carried the United Kingdom’s major political parties over the past few years, there is scant doubt as to the outcome of the next British election. The sole question is the scope of the victory for Labour: Will it somehow be a disappointing victory, a respectable win, a Blair-esque blowout win, or the electoral equivalent of the Chicxulub Event for the Tories?
The fact of the matter is this: The Conservatives have trailed in the opinion polls since late 2021. That downward trend accelerated during the short and disastrous premiership of Liz Truss, a woman famously outlasted by a head of iceberg lettuce. She left and Rishi Sunak came in, but nothing – quite literally nothing – he or his Tory frontbench team have done in the past two years has adjusted the trajectory of polling. They have been consistently behind by a wide margin since the autumn of 2022, near the passing of Queen Elizabeth II.
Have Rishi Sunak and his party covered themselves in glory during his term? No, and Sunak’s reign has seen its share of missteps, unforced errors, scandal-ridden MPs, massive by-election losses, and unpopular policy decisions undertaken. Even those things the Conservatives would characterize as quote-unquote good policy achievements during Sunak’s premiership have failed to adjust the course of this Tory government. It is on track for electoral ruin.
Labour’s lead in the opinion polls is no joke. It has been replicated dozens of times by various pollsters over the past two years with remarkable consistency. In fact, it is almost a marvel at how stable Labour’s lead, and the Tory deficit, have been for such a long period of time. It would be a genuine shock if Keir Starmer and Labour finished below 40 percent in the general election. Likewise, short of some Reform UK voters “coming home” and saving their proverbial bacon, it is also probable that the Conservatives will post their worst vote share showing since 1997, if not an even worse one.
About the 2023 Local Elections
There were some in the political sphere who claimed to be disappointed by Labour’s performance in the 2023 UK local elections. This was despite gaining over 500 councilors and 22 councils, while Tory losses hit four-digits. That disappointment stemmed from Labour getting “only” 35 percent of the vote, never mind that the Tories got a much more concerning 26.
It is easy for me to dismiss those local elections as not being an apples-to-apples comparison to a general election. For one thing, constituents are voting on local issues, and just as importantly, there are parties (such as residents’ associations) contesting and winning elections at this level, but would never in a general election. Furthering that point, others and independents bagged about 20 percent of the vote in the English local elections. The number was closer to six or seven percent in England in 2019’s general, and I have news: if the Reform UK party does well in the next election, a lot of those votes are coming out of the Tories’ basket. Not all, since we know there was a fair amount of Labour-Leave crossover, but enough.
The By-Elections: Eek
Not that I think these are sure telltale signs, either, but I regard the recent by-elections as more indicative of the momentum than the 2023 local elections, or even the upcoming 2024 local elections. Since gaining Hartlepool in 2021, the Conservatives have lost prior seats in ten by-elections: Chesham and Amersham, North Shropshire, Wakefield, Tiverton and Honiton, Selby and Ainsty, Somerton and Frome, Mid Bedfordshire, Tamworth, Wellingborough, and Kingswood. They will probably also lose the upcoming by-election in Blackpool South on 2 May.
In many of those others, they defended enormous majorities which evaporated in the face of apocalyptic swings against the Tories, the average of which was 24.4 percent in those ten losses. A uniform swing is not likely, but a 24-percent swing away from the Conservatives in a general election would be a mass-extinction event. If the Tory headquarters is not concerned about those results, they should be; if they say they are not, they are lying. They are intelligent enough to know what is happening: that many by-election losses spread out across England, with large swings against them, spells repudiation by the electorate.
The Tories’ only by-election win of note in the past year was Uxbridge and South Ruislip, Boris Johnson’s old seat, in which the Tory candidate squeaked out a win on a heavily-localized campaign against ULEZ, London’s vehicle anti-emissions scheme. Unfortunately for the Conservatives, ULEZ ends at Greater London’s boundaries, and there is much more country beyond it.
Next British Election: Tories Would Need a Miracle
If you are a Conservative voter hoping for another four to five years of this government, there is nothing I can tell you with any degree of objectivity that will make you feel better. To my eye, and the eyes of many political observers, all trends have been static for a long while. There is no evidence of a spark in the Tory campaign which might signal a turnaround. Likewise, short of a colossal, all-time whopper of a scandal or collapse by Labour, Keir Starmer will be the next British prime minister. Even at that, where is the evidence that British voters will run back to the Tories? Hell, if there is anything that public opinion is bearing out, it’s that the public are voting against the Conservatives more than for anyone else. Labour is the typical and primary beneficiary of any anti-Tory sentiment, and so far, they have given nobody a reason to avoid them.
In politics, per the usual caveats cited above, one never wants to say never. A few months is a long time, et cetera and so on. However, to call the Conservatives’ electoral outlook bleak in the forthcoming election would be quite generous to Sunak and company. Better terms to use include disastrous, cataclysmic, desperate, and/or catastrophic. Not a single policy initiative, well-received or otherwise, has moved the opinion polls in any notable way.
After 14 years in government and four consecutive general election victories, the British people will not come to their rescue this time. The best-case scenario for the Tories is a respectable defeat that does not gut their bench of talent, and positions them to fight on in 2028 or 2029. However, a more plausible outcome is a 1997-style crash, a full rebuild, and at least two terms deep into opposition.
