Maine and Nebraska have had an electoral vote split for decades, but will that end in 2024?
Just two states, Maine and Nebraska, allocate their presidential electoral votes in a way differently than every other state in the union. 48 states and the District of Columbia give the sum of their electoral college votes to the state’s winner. Maine and Nebraska are the sole two states which are not “winner-take-all.” The state’s overall winner there gets two electoral votes, and then each congressional district winner gets an electoral vote. Nebraska has five electoral votes (3 districts) in total, and Maine has four (2 districts).
However, in 2024, both states might ditch the split of their electoral votes, and move to a winner-take-all system like every other state.
Electoral Vote Split History
Maine moved to the congressional district split for electoral votes in 1972. Nebraska’s adoption of this method was in 1996. In spite of there being over a dozen presidential elections since Maine first made this change, there have only been three elections in which individual congressional districts differed from the state’s winner:
- 2008: Barack Obama carried the 2nd District of Nebraska despite losing the state.
- 2016: Donald Trump won the 2nd District of Maine, but not Maine itself.
- 2020: Joe Biden won the 2nd District of Nebraska and Donald Trump carried Maine’s 2nd District, the first time that both states had a split at the same time.
Why The EV Splits Matter
Due to the partisan lean of both Maine and Nebraska as a whole, neither is in serious danger of slipping to the other side. Nebraska is a friendly, wide-open state, but outside the cities of Omaha and Lincoln, it is also quite red. In fact, some of the redder counties you will find in America are there. Even if a Democrat were to carry Douglas (Omaha) and Lancaster (Lincoln) Counties, the state’s two largest – and they usually do – the rest of Nebraska is so GOP ruby-red that it does not matter.
The 2nd District of Nebraska is a swing district, dominated by the City of Omaha. Its other two districts, the 1st and 3rd, occupy the much redder areas of the state. Lincoln falls within the 1st District, but its bluer trends are more than cancelled out by the rest of the district. The 3rd District is one of the reddest in the United States.
On the other hand, Maine, “Vacationland,” has plenty of Republican-leaning areas in northern, central, and the “Downeast” part of the state. Many of them fall within the 2nd District. The problem for those GOP voters is that the southwestern part of the state, anchored by York and Cumberland Counties in the 1st District, is so blue that in contrast to what happens in Nebraska, they overwhelm the rest of the state. This especially applies to Cumberland, which is Portland’s county. Those also happen to be the two most populated counties in Maine. In 2020, subtract York and Cumberland, and Donald Trump would have won the rest of the state by about 11,000 votes. Not at all as red as Nebraska without Douglas and Lancaster, as much of the seacoast leans Democratic, but a lot redder than it would have been with them.
Why The Electoral Vote Split Might End Soon
During the 2024 legislative session, the Nebraska unicameral legislature (which is officially non-partisan but in reality is dominated by Republicans) had a bill in its hands to eliminate the state’s electoral vote split. It is notable because Joe Biden won the Omaha-dominated second district in 2020 while Donald Trump carried the rest of the state. The intent of the GOP legislature was clear: take a potential electoral vote away from Biden.
Nebraska’s legislative session expired, but Governor Jim Pillen, also a Republican, has not ruled out calling a special session to consider passage of the bill. Pillen has made it clear that he thinks the state’s electoral vote split is a “mistake” and is encouraging the legislature to gut it.
Now enter Maine into this conversation, as the only other state with an electoral vote split. Donald Trump won its second district in both 2016 and 2020, but the first district was so blue that Maine’s other three electoral votes were virtual locks for Biden. Just a few days ago, Maine’s state House majority leader, Democrat Maureen Terry, said that if Nebraska pulled the plug on their electoral vote scheme, Maine would consider doing the same. If both states go through with it, the likely net result is that the changes will cancel each other out, and Biden and Trump will end up with the number of electoral votes they “should.”
So Long, Nebraska & Maine EV Split?
This is a clear partisan tit-for-tat, one that might irk some Republicans but also one that the Democrats would tell you restores balance. If you are fine with Nebraska changing its electoral allocation to remove a potential vote for Joe Biden and future Democrats, then likewise it is probably fair that Maine does the same and takes away an electoral vote for Donald Trump and the GOP.
It is a shame, as both Maine and Nebraska have an electoral college vote allotment system that more accurately reflects the voters of their respective states, but American politics in 2024 are highly charged. If Nebraska pulls the plug on their system, Maine will do the same.
